Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Says It’s Almost Time For Bull Season
There is no denying that Bitcoin has been torn to shreds by bears in recent months following a new record high in November last year. Even with new highs, the rally is largely seen as a failure without a dramatic end to the cycle.
But what if that rally was part of a bear phase, which is only now about to end? In a new direct comparison between bear phases in Bitcoin since 2018, this could indicate that it is now almost time for another bull season.
Cyclical Bull Market Behavior
Months ago, the term “little” was thrown around the crypto community because not enough people understood the potential of what Bitcoin could do for them financially. Today, very few people expect Bitcoin to rise from here.
Often, when hive sentiment is at its most frothy, deep corrections straighten the masses. Right now Bitcoin bears are drooling for under $30,000, but they may never get it, according to a new equation†
Related literature | Bitcoin Mimics Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle, What Happens When Confidence Returns?
Each market exhibits cyclical behavior across multiple time frames. There are bear and bull markets, and even uptrends and downtrends within them that alternate based on moods.
But what if these alternating patterns of mood swings were predictable? That’s what the comparison below aims to find out.
This comparison chart says it’s time for bears | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bear Phases Compared
In the above equation, the 2018 bear market, the 2019 to 2020 bear phase, and the current consolidation phase are juxtaposed. Each fractal measures approximately 460 days. Alternating between each bear phase is a brief bullish impulse that shocks the world.
Taurus impulses only last 98 days, but they tend to push prices to unprecedented heights. These bull phases have delivered at least more than 300% ROI. A 300% return of $40,000 would bring the price per BTC to $120,000.
Related literature | This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests There Is Still A Burning Cycle Peak Ahead
Each bear stage lasted just over 14 months. Edwin “Sedge” Coppock, creator of the technical indicator called the Coppock curve, found that the average time it takes for a person to get over a loss was 11 to 14 months on average. This is, in theory, how long it should take the average investor to get over their “loss” on Bitcoin and start thinking positively again.
With only days to go until another bull impulse kicks in based on the above equations, will Bitcoin price really fall below $30,000 as the market braces, or will a reversal overwhelm the community?
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, charts from TradingView.com