Bitcoin Starts Bouncing From 7-Year Bull Trendline – Is This The Bottom?


Bitcoin’s price is now above $40,000, more than 20% higher than its late January lows. Despite the recovery, the general sentiment in the crypto community, analysts and more is that the bottom is far from in sight.

Meanwhile, BTCUSD has started the recent rise from a seven-year secular bull trend line. Could that fact, coupled with how few expect a bottom, be the best reason why someone might already be in it?

Contradictory Opinion: Sentiment in the crypto market would be blind to a bottom

In a flash, Bitcoin has surged above $40,000 again — still well below the $100,000 year-end 2021 targets projected by the crypto community, analysts, math models and more.

The current collective expectation from that same crowd is that the current rally is nothing more than a “bull trap” and a return to $30,000 and even lower is almost guaranteed.

Related literature | Bitcoin Death Cross 2022: What You Need To Know About The Deadly Signal

Often when the consensus expects one direction, the market moves in a contrarian manner. With market participants sold on the idea that a downward trend will continue, the current uptick could leave many behind.

Especially when the bounce itself started off at a seven-year secular bull trendline – and a trendline that yielded two bear market bottoms.

A look at the seven-year secular bull trendline | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The Bitcoin Trendline That Just Won’t Stay Broken

The chart above shows what the nearly decade-long trendline looks like. The trendline first started at the bottom of the 2014-2015 bear market and was only temporarily lost during that period. After working with it for almost two full years, Bitcoin price went parabolic, rising from around $2,500 to $20,000 in a few months.

The best cryptocurrency by market cap spent the entire bear market above the trendline and only bounced back in December 2018 to hit the most recent bear market bottom. Much like the 2014-2015 bear market, the line was briefly lost again during the current cycle during the Black Thursday market collapse.

Regaining the trendline is the cause of fireworks in late 2020 and early 2021, and Bitcoin has risen since then. Only now, after an unexpected downward trend back to the low $30,000, has the cryptocurrency hit the trendline in question since late 2020.

Related literature | 2022: The Year The Secular Bitcoin Bull Run Could End

An uptick is beginning, but few expect it to be the bottom. But why not? Bitcoin has fallen on this trendline more times than any other. In December 2018, the common theory was that the downtrend would continue and few expected to hit the bottom when it did.

In hindsight, that was indeed the bottom of the last bear market. Could this bottom be another example of a bottom that was only realized afterwards?

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Featured image from iStockPhoto, charts from TradingView.com



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