Why Bitcoin Could Be Worth $1 Million A Coin By 2030
ARK Invest, the brainchild of savvy investor Cathie Wood, has struggled in recent months. The ARKK flagship fund is down nearly 60% from its record high last year, but Wood and her team of analysts aren’t ceasing their full focus on innovative and forward-looking investments — even when fundamental investments are the show.
This week hosted ARK’s “Big Ideas Summit,” and ARK crypto analyst Yassine Elmandjra topped off that material with a rambunctious bitcoin tweet that will be music to BTC maxi’s ears.
Cathie Wood & ARK Invest: infamous bulls
Elmandjra’s tweet, which can be found below, shows how a single BTC unit could reach $1 million in value, with a few key assumptions:
The price of a single bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.
We’re still early. pic.twitter.com/rvja2h2vi5
— Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) January 25, 2022
Let’s look at that image specifically to dig deeper into the assumptions made here, and why they’re important:
The main assumption here is, of course, the staggering growth of bitcoin’s market cap over the next 9 years. In this model, the ARK team predicts growth from a current market cap of $1.1T to a market cap of $28.5T. How does this scale? According to a report from October 2021 from the securities trading group SIFMA, the US stock markets have a market cap of about $50T – making a market cap of $28.5T for a global bitcoin market not seem so unreasonable. Elmandrja’s image also mentions the expected use case breakdown allocated within the market cap, and its representative contribution to the price per BTC.
Related literature | Bitcoin Recovers From Seven Month Low Of $33K
ARKK, the flagship innovation fund behind ARK Invest, has had a difficult year after a great success. Can growth stocks and innovative investments turn around? | Source: NYSE: ARKK on TradingView.com
More from the research firm…
Elmandrja and the ARK Invest team continue to point out that even assuming a $28.5T market cap could be more conservative than ambitious. Elmandrja added: “If Bitcoin reaches $1 million, it will still represent only a fraction of the global asset value” and also highlighted the infamous ‘diamond hands’ often exhibited by bitcoin holders, stating that “market participants mature and remain long-term oriented. The total cost base (realised ceiling) is always high and more than 13.5 million btc is held by long-term holders.”
Of course, this isn’t groundbreaking for those who have studied the bottom line extensively. In fact, compared to other relative global markets, a bitcoin market cap of $28.5T would trade today in multiples less than comparable markets, such as the global real estate market, the global bond market, or the global stock market.
Elmandrja’s entire thread is worth reading for these reasons and several others, which delve deep into ARK’s optimism around bitcoin (and crypto in general) as an investment vehicle. You can also read their broader Big Ideas 2022 report here.
Related literature | Bitcoin Whales Take Advantage Of Market Crash To Swallow Millions In BTC
Featured image from ark-invest.com, charts from TradingView.com The author of this content is not associated or affiliated with any of the parties mentioned in this article. This is not financial advice.